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Eger vs Tállya — NB III - Northeast 2019

Eger
Eger
FT
1 – 0
Tállya
Tállya
8/1/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 1Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Eger54%
×Draw22%
Tállya23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eger
1.90
Tállya
1.16

Eger creates 64% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 47 away

creates per match

Eger
1.47
Tállya
1.09

allows per match

Eger
1.23
Tállya
2.32

finishing

Eger+0.00on par
Tállya+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eger ↓

Tállya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Eger or draw
77%
Eger or Tállya
78%
Draw or Tállya
46%

Winning margin

Eger wins by 2+
31%
Tállya wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eger 1+ goals
85%
Eger 2+ goals
56%
Eger 3+ goals
29%
Tállya 1+ goals
69%
Tállya 2+ goals
32%
Tállya 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Eger (draw refunded)
70%
Tállya (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eger at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Tállya away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.32 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eger attack 1.47 + Tállya defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.90

Tállya attack 1.09 + Eger defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Eger scores more
54%
level
22%
Tállya scores more
23%

Eger at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Eger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eger vs Tállya

Eger beat Tállya 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion in Eger.