Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eger vs Salgótarjáni BTC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Eger
Eger
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
3/30/2025NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 22Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Eger53%
×Draw24%
Salgótarjáni BTC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eger
1.69
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.04

Eger creates 63% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 49 away

creates per match

Eger
1.47
Salgótarjáni BTC
0.86

allows per match

Eger
1.23
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.92

finishing

Eger+0.00on par
Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eger ↓

Salgótarjáni BTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Eger or draw
77%
Eger or Salgótarjáni BTC
76%
Draw or Salgótarjáni BTC
47%

Winning margin

Eger wins by 2+
28%
Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eger 1+ goals
82%
Eger 2+ goals
50%
Eger 3+ goals
24%
Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
65%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
28%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Eger (draw refunded)
69%
Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eger at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Salgótarjáni BTC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eger attack 1.47 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.69

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 0.86 + Eger defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Eger scores more
53%
level
24%
Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
23%

Eger at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Eger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eger vs Salgótarjáni BTC

Salgótarjáni BTC beat Eger 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion in Eger.