Eger 1–0 Putnok VSE: Result & Stats

Eger

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Putnok VSE

11/18/2023

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 16Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Eger39%

×Draw25%

Putnok VSE36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EgerExpected goals in this matchPutnok VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.43

Eger

1.50

Putnok VSE

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

1.47

creates per match

1.63

1.23

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Eger

1.47

Putnok VSE

1.63

allows per match

Eger

1.23

Putnok VSE

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eger+0.00on par

Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eger ↓

Putnok VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Eger or draw

64%

Eger or Putnok VSE

75%

Draw or Putnok VSE

61%

Winning margin

Eger wins by 2+

19%

Putnok VSE wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Eger 1+ goals

78%

Eger 2+ goals

44%

Eger 3+ goals

19%

Putnok VSE 1+ goals

76%

Putnok VSE 2+ goals

42%

Putnok VSE 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Eger (draw refunded)

52%

Putnok VSE (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eger at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Putnok VSE away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eger attack 1.47 + Putnok VSE defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Putnok VSE attack 1.63 + Eger defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eger scores more

39%

level

25%

Putnok VSE scores more

36%

Eger at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Eger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff