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Eger vs Karcag SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Eger
Eger
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Karcag SE
Karcag SE
3/2/2025NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 18Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Eger38%
×Draw26%
Karcag SE36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eger
1.37
Karcag SE
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 49 away

creates per match

Eger
1.47
Karcag SE
1.41

allows per match

Eger
1.23
Karcag SE
1.27

finishing

Eger+0.00on par
Karcag SE+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eger ↓

Karcag SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Eger or draw
64%
Eger or Karcag SE
74%
Draw or Karcag SE
62%

Winning margin

Eger wins by 2+
18%
Karcag SE wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Eger 1+ goals
75%
Eger 2+ goals
40%
Eger 3+ goals
16%
Karcag SE 1+ goals
73%
Karcag SE 2+ goals
38%
Karcag SE 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Eger (draw refunded)
52%
Karcag SE (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eger at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Karcag SE away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eger attack 1.47 + Karcag SE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Karcag SE attack 1.41 + Eger defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Eger scores more
38%
level
26%
Karcag SE scores more
36%

Eger at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Eger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Eger 0–0 Karcag SE

Eger and Karcag SE drew 0-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion in Eger.