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Eger vs Gyöngyös — NB III - Northeast 2019

Eger
Eger
FT
3 – 3
Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
10/25/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 15Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Eger55%
×Draw22%
Gyöngyös23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eger
1.94
Gyöngyös
1.19

Eger creates 63% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 43 away

creates per match

Eger
1.47
Gyöngyös
1.14

allows per match

Eger
1.23
Gyöngyös
2.40

finishing

Eger+0.00on par
Gyöngyös+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eger ↓

Gyöngyös →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Eger or draw
77%
Eger or Gyöngyös
78%
Draw or Gyöngyös
45%

Winning margin

Eger wins by 2+
32%
Gyöngyös wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eger 1+ goals
86%
Eger 2+ goals
58%
Eger 3+ goals
30%
Gyöngyös 1+ goals
70%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
33%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Eger (draw refunded)
70%
Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eger at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Gyöngyös away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eger attack 1.47 + Gyöngyös defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.94

Gyöngyös attack 1.14 + Eger defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Eger scores more
55%
level
22%
Gyöngyös scores more
23%

Eger at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Eger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Eger 3–3 Gyöngyös

Eger and Gyöngyös drew 3-3 in NB III - Northeast on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion in Eger.