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Efrin vs Foutoua — Premier League 2019

Efrin
Efrin
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Foutoua
Foutoua
4/22/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 227 April Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Efrin20%
×Draw24%
Foutoua57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Efrin
0.90
Foutoua
1.72

Foutoua creates 91% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 81 away

creates per match

Efrin
0.62
Foutoua
0.98

allows per match

Efrin
2.46
Foutoua
1.17

finishing

Efrin+0.00on par
Foutoua+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Efrin ↓

Foutoua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Efrin or draw
43%
Efrin or Foutoua
76%
Draw or Foutoua
80%

Winning margin

Efrin wins by 2+
6%
Foutoua wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Efrin 1+ goals
59%
Efrin 2+ goals
23%
Efrin 3+ goals
6%
Foutoua 1+ goals
82%
Foutoua 2+ goals
51%
Foutoua 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Efrin (draw refunded)
26%
Foutoua (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Efrin at home — creates 0.62, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Foutoua away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.17 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Efrin attack 0.62 + Foutoua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.90

Foutoua attack 0.98 + Efrin defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Efrin scores more
20%
level
24%
Foutoua scores more
57%

Foutoua at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Foutoua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Efrin 1 – 3 Foutoua

Foutoua beat Efrin 3-1 in Premier League on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at 7 April Stadium in Aleppo.