Eendracht Aalst W 0–7 OH Leuven W: Result & Stats

Eendracht Aalst W

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 1

OH Leuven W

10/1/2022

Super League Women · Round 6Het Pierre Cornelisstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Eendracht Aalst W21%

×Draw20%

OH Leuven W59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eendracht Aalst WExpected goals in this matchOH Leuven W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.17

Eendracht Aalst W

1.21

OH Leuven W

2.17

OH Leuven W creates 79% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 101 away

1.05

creates per match

2.07

2.27

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Eendracht Aalst W

1.05

OH Leuven W

2.07

allows per match

Eendracht Aalst W

2.27

OH Leuven W

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eendracht Aalst W+0.00on par

OH Leuven W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eendracht Aalst W ↓

OH Leuven W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Eendracht Aalst W or draw

41%

Eendracht Aalst W or OH Leuven W

80%

Draw or OH Leuven W

79%

Winning margin

Eendracht Aalst W wins by 2+

8%

OH Leuven W wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Eendracht Aalst W 1+ goals

70%

Eendracht Aalst W 2+ goals

34%

Eendracht Aalst W 3+ goals

12%

OH Leuven W 1+ goals

89%

OH Leuven W 2+ goals

64%

OH Leuven W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Eendracht Aalst W (draw refunded)

26%

OH Leuven W (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eendracht Aalst W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.27 · 40 matches

OH Leuven W away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eendracht Aalst W attack 1.05 + OH Leuven W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

OH Leuven W attack 2.07 + Eendracht Aalst W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Eendracht Aalst W scores more

21%

level

20%

OH Leuven W scores more

59%

OH Leuven W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "OH Leuven W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff