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Eendracht Aalst W vs Mechelen W — Super League Women 2018

Eendracht Aalst W
Eendracht Aalst W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mechelen W
Mechelen W
3/18/2023Super League WomenSuper League Women · Lower Table Round - 1Het Pierre Cornelisstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Eendracht Aalst W44%
×Draw22%
Mechelen W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eendracht Aalst W
1.91
Mechelen W
1.64

Eendracht Aalst W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 26 away

creates per match

Eendracht Aalst W
1.05
Mechelen W
1.00

allows per match

Eendracht Aalst W
2.27
Mechelen W
2.77

finishing

Eendracht Aalst W+0.00on par
Mechelen W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eendracht Aalst W ↓

Mechelen W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Eendracht Aalst W or draw
66%
Eendracht Aalst W or Mechelen W
78%
Draw or Mechelen W
56%

Winning margin

Eendracht Aalst W wins by 2+
24%
Mechelen W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Eendracht Aalst W 1+ goals
85%
Eendracht Aalst W 2+ goals
57%
Eendracht Aalst W 3+ goals
30%
Mechelen W 1+ goals
81%
Mechelen W 2+ goals
49%
Mechelen W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Eendracht Aalst W (draw refunded)
57%
Mechelen W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eendracht Aalst W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.27 · 40 matches

Mechelen W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eendracht Aalst W attack 1.05 + Mechelen W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 1.91

Mechelen W attack 1.00 + Eendracht Aalst W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Eendracht Aalst W scores more
44%
level
22%
Mechelen W scores more
34%

Eendracht Aalst W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Eendracht Aalst W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: Eendracht Aalst W 1–2 Mechelen W

Mechelen W beat Eendracht Aalst W 2-1 in Super League Women on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Het Pierre Cornelisstadion in Aalst.