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Eendracht Aalst W vs Gent W — Super League Women 2018

Eendracht Aalst W
Eendracht Aalst W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Gent W
Gent W
11/19/2022Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 11Het Pierre Cornelisstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Eendracht Aalst W27%
×Draw22%
Gent W50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eendracht Aalst W
1.35
Gent W
1.91

Gent W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 105 away

creates per match

Eendracht Aalst W
1.05
Gent W
1.55

allows per match

Eendracht Aalst W
2.27
Gent W
1.65

finishing

Eendracht Aalst W+0.00on par
Gent W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eendracht Aalst W ↓

Gent W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Eendracht Aalst W or draw
50%
Eendracht Aalst W or Gent W
78%
Draw or Gent W
73%

Winning margin

Eendracht Aalst W wins by 2+
12%
Gent W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Eendracht Aalst W 1+ goals
74%
Eendracht Aalst W 2+ goals
39%
Eendracht Aalst W 3+ goals
15%
Gent W 1+ goals
85%
Gent W 2+ goals
57%
Gent W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Eendracht Aalst W (draw refunded)
35%
Gent W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eendracht Aalst W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.27 · 40 matches

Gent W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.65 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eendracht Aalst W attack 1.05 + Gent W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gent W attack 1.55 + Eendracht Aalst W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Eendracht Aalst W scores more
27%
level
22%
Gent W scores more
50%

Gent W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gent W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: Eendracht Aalst W 0–4 Gent W

Gent W beat Eendracht Aalst W 4-0 in Super League Women on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Het Pierre Cornelisstadion in Aalst.