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Eendracht Aalst W vs Club Brugge W — Super League Women 2018

Eendracht Aalst W
Eendracht Aalst W
FT
0 – 2
Club Brugge W
Club Brugge W
8/29/2020Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 1Het Pierre Cornelisstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Eendracht Aalst W29%
×Draw22%
Club Brugge W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eendracht Aalst W
1.42
Club Brugge W
1.89

Club Brugge W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 88 away

creates per match

Eendracht Aalst W
1.05
Club Brugge W
1.51

allows per match

Eendracht Aalst W
2.27
Club Brugge W
1.78

finishing

Eendracht Aalst W+0.00on par
Club Brugge W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eendracht Aalst W ↓

Club Brugge W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Eendracht Aalst W or draw
52%
Eendracht Aalst W or Club Brugge W
78%
Draw or Club Brugge W
71%

Winning margin

Eendracht Aalst W wins by 2+
13%
Club Brugge W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Eendracht Aalst W 1+ goals
76%
Eendracht Aalst W 2+ goals
41%
Eendracht Aalst W 3+ goals
17%
Club Brugge W 1+ goals
85%
Club Brugge W 2+ goals
56%
Club Brugge W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Eendracht Aalst W (draw refunded)
37%
Club Brugge W (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eendracht Aalst W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.27 · 40 matches

Club Brugge W away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eendracht Aalst W attack 1.05 + Club Brugge W defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.42

Club Brugge W attack 1.51 + Eendracht Aalst W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eendracht Aalst W scores more
29%
level
22%
Club Brugge W scores more
48%

Club Brugge W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Club Brugge W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: Eendracht Aalst W 0–2 Club Brugge W

Club Brugge W beat Eendracht Aalst W 2-0 in Super League Women on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Het Pierre Cornelisstadion in Aalst.