Club Brugge W 6–1 Eendracht Aalst W: Result & Stats

Club Brugge W

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Eendracht Aalst W

R. Ariyo 84'

L. Van Belle 81'

S. Ouzraoui Diki 50'

D. Vanmechelen 24'

C. Guns 8'

L. Matavkova 3'

F. Temmerman 37'

1/28/2023

Super League Women · Round 18Gemeentelijk Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Club Brugge W62%

×Draw19%

Eendracht Aalst W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Brugge WExpected goals in this matchEendracht Aalst W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.35

Club Brugge W

2.48

Eendracht Aalst W

1.35

Club Brugge W creates 84% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 40 away

1.89

creates per match

1.07

1.62

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Club Brugge W

1.89

Eendracht Aalst W

1.07

allows per match

Club Brugge W

1.62

Eendracht Aalst W

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Brugge W+0.00on par

Eendracht Aalst W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge W ↓

Eendracht Aalst W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Club Brugge W or draw

80%

Club Brugge W or Eendracht Aalst W

81%

Draw or Eendracht Aalst W

38%

Winning margin

Club Brugge W wins by 2+

40%

Eendracht Aalst W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Club Brugge W 1+ goals

92%

Club Brugge W 2+ goals

70%

Club Brugge W 3+ goals

44%

Eendracht Aalst W 1+ goals

74%

Eendracht Aalst W 2+ goals

39%

Eendracht Aalst W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge W (draw refunded)

76%

Eendracht Aalst W (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge W at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.62 · 92 matches

Eendracht Aalst W away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge W attack 1.89 + Eendracht Aalst W defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.48

Eendracht Aalst W attack 1.07 + Club Brugge W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Club Brugge W scores more

62%

level

19%

Eendracht Aalst W scores more

20%

Club Brugge W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Club Brugge W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

L. Matavkova

8'

C. Guns

24'

D. Vanmechelen

37'

F. Temmerman

50'

S. Ouzraoui Diki

81'

L. Van Belle

84'

R. Ariyo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff