Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eemdijk vs URK — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Eemdijk
Eemdijk
FT
5 – 3
HT: 5 – 1
URK
URK
4/11/2026Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 29Sportpark De Vinken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Eemdijk47%
×Draw21%
URK32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eemdijk
2.18
URK
1.77

Eemdijk creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Eemdijk
2.12
URK
1.65

allows per match

Eemdijk
1.90
URK
2.24

finishing

Eemdijk+0.00on par
URK+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eemdijk ↓

URK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Eemdijk or draw
68%
Eemdijk or URK
79%
Draw or URK
53%

Winning margin

Eemdijk wins by 2+
28%
URK wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Eemdijk 1+ goals
89%
Eemdijk 2+ goals
64%
Eemdijk 3+ goals
37%
URK 1+ goals
83%
URK 2+ goals
53%
URK 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Eemdijk (draw refunded)
60%
URK (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eemdijk at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.90 · 51 matches

URK away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eemdijk attack 2.12 + URK defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.18

URK attack 1.65 + Eemdijk defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Eemdijk scores more
47%
level
21%
URK scores more
32%

Eemdijk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eemdijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Eemdijk 5–3 URK

Eemdijk beat URK 5-3 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vinken in Bunschoten.