Eemdijk 3–4 Rijnvogels: Result & Stats

Eemdijk

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Rijnvogels

11/11/2023

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 12Sportpark De Vinken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Eemdijk42%

×Draw21%

Rijnvogels37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EemdijkExpected goals in this matchRijnvogels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.89

Eemdijk

2.04

Rijnvogels

1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

2.12

creates per match

1.88

1.90

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Eemdijk

2.12

Rijnvogels

1.88

allows per match

Eemdijk

1.90

Rijnvogels

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eemdijk+0.00on par

Rijnvogels+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eemdijk ↓

Rijnvogels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Eemdijk or draw

63%

Eemdijk or Rijnvogels

79%

Draw or Rijnvogels

58%

Winning margin

Eemdijk wins by 2+

24%

Rijnvogels wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Eemdijk 1+ goals

87%

Eemdijk 2+ goals

60%

Eemdijk 3+ goals

33%

Rijnvogels 1+ goals

85%

Rijnvogels 2+ goals

56%

Rijnvogels 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Eemdijk (draw refunded)

54%

Rijnvogels (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eemdijk at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.90 · 51 matches

Rijnvogels away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eemdijk attack 2.12 + Rijnvogels defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.04

Rijnvogels attack 1.88 + Eemdijk defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eemdijk scores more

42%

level

21%

Rijnvogels scores more

37%

Eemdijk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Eemdijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff