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Eemdijk vs HSV ODIN 59 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Eemdijk
Eemdijk
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
12/9/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 16Sportpark De Vinken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Eemdijk51%
×Draw20%
HSV ODIN 5928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eemdijk
2.28
HSV ODIN 59
1.67

Eemdijk creates 37% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 46 away

creates per match

Eemdijk
2.12
HSV ODIN 59
1.43

allows per match

Eemdijk
1.90
HSV ODIN 59
2.43

finishing

Eemdijk+0.00on par
HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eemdijk ↓

HSV ODIN 59 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Eemdijk or draw
72%
Eemdijk or HSV ODIN 59
80%
Draw or HSV ODIN 59
49%

Winning margin

Eemdijk wins by 2+
31%
HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Eemdijk 1+ goals
90%
Eemdijk 2+ goals
66%
Eemdijk 3+ goals
39%
HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
81%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
50%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Eemdijk (draw refunded)
64%
HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eemdijk at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.90 · 51 matches

HSV ODIN 59 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eemdijk attack 2.12 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.28

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.43 + Eemdijk defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eemdijk scores more
51%
level
20%
HSV ODIN 59 scores more
28%

Eemdijk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eemdijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eemdijk vs HSV ODIN 59

Eemdijk beat HSV ODIN 59 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vinken in Bunschoten.