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Eemdijk vs Harkemase Boys — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Eemdijk
Eemdijk
FT
1 – 1
Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
10/11/2025Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 9Sportpark De Vinken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Eemdijk40%
×Draw22%
Harkemase Boys38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eemdijk
1.85
Harkemase Boys
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 98 away

creates per match

Eemdijk
2.12
Harkemase Boys
1.68

allows per match

Eemdijk
1.90
Harkemase Boys
1.59

finishing

Eemdijk+0.00on par
Harkemase Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eemdijk ↓

Harkemase Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Eemdijk or draw
62%
Eemdijk or Harkemase Boys
78%
Draw or Harkemase Boys
60%

Winning margin

Eemdijk wins by 2+
21%
Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Eemdijk 1+ goals
84%
Eemdijk 2+ goals
55%
Eemdijk 3+ goals
28%
Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
83%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
53%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Eemdijk (draw refunded)
52%
Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eemdijk at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.90 · 51 matches

Harkemase Boys away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eemdijk attack 2.12 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.85

Harkemase Boys attack 1.68 + Eemdijk defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eemdijk scores more
40%
level
22%
Harkemase Boys scores more
38%

Eemdijk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eemdijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eemdijk vs Harkemase Boys

Eemdijk and Harkemase Boys drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark De Vinken in Bunschoten.