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EDMF Churra vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

EDMF Churra
EDMF Churra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Murcia II
Real Murcia II
12/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Campo De Futbol El Puntal Las Canteras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

EDMF Churra35%
×Draw29%
Real Murcia II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EDMF Churra
1.13
Real Murcia II
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 111 away

creates per match

EDMF Churra
1.10
Real Murcia II
1.24

allows per match

EDMF Churra
1.03
Real Murcia II
1.15

finishing

EDMF Churra+0.00on par
Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EDMF Churra ↓

Real Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

EDMF Churra or draw
64%
EDMF Churra or Real Murcia II
71%
Draw or Real Murcia II
65%

Winning margin

EDMF Churra wins by 2+
14%
Real Murcia II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

EDMF Churra 1+ goals
68%
EDMF Churra 2+ goals
31%
EDMF Churra 3+ goals
11%
Real Murcia II 1+ goals
68%
Real Murcia II 2+ goals
32%
Real Murcia II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)
50%
Real Murcia II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EDMF Churra at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EDMF Churra attack 1.10 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + EDMF Churra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

EDMF Churra scores more
35%
level
29%
Real Murcia II scores more
36%

Real Murcia II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

EDMF Churra 0 – 1 Real Murcia II

Real Murcia II beat EDMF Churra 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Campo De Futbol El Puntal Las Canteras in Murcia.