EDMF Churra vs Plus Ultra: Preview & Prediction

EDMF Churra

CANC

00:00

Plus Ultra

3/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Campo de EDMF Churra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

EDMF Churra59%

×Draw23%

Plus Ultra18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EDMF ChurraExpected goals in this matchPlus Ultra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.91

EDMF Churra

1.83

Plus Ultra

0.91

EDMF Churra creates 101% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 63 away

1.10

creates per match

0.79

1.03

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

EDMF Churra

1.10

Plus Ultra

0.79

allows per match

EDMF Churra

1.03

Plus Ultra

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EDMF Churra+0.00on par

Plus Ultra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EDMF Churra ↓

Plus Ultra →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

EDMF Churra or draw

82%

EDMF Churra or Plus Ultra

77%

Draw or Plus Ultra

41%

Winning margin

EDMF Churra wins by 2+

34%

Plus Ultra wins by 2+

Team goals

EDMF Churra 1+ goals

84%

EDMF Churra 2+ goals

54%

EDMF Churra 3+ goals

28%

Plus Ultra 1+ goals

60%

Plus Ultra 2+ goals

23%

Plus Ultra 3+ goals

Draw no bet

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)

76%

Plus Ultra (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

EDMF Churra at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Plus Ultra away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

EDMF Churra attack 1.10 + Plus Ultra defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.83

Plus Ultra attack 0.79 + EDMF Churra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

EDMF Churra scores more

59%

level

23%

Plus Ultra scores more

18%

EDMF Churra at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "EDMF Churra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

EDMF Churra vs Plus Ultra — Match Preview

EDMF Churra face Plus Ultra on March 22, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

EDMF Churra host Plus Ultra at Campo de EDMF Churra.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

EDMF Churra vs Plus Ultra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

EDMF Churra vs Plus Ultra — Match Preview