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EDMF Churra vs Mazarrón FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

EDMF Churra
EDMF Churra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
1/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 22Campo de EDMF Churra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

EDMF Churra38%
×Draw28%
Mazarrón FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EDMF Churra
1.22
Mazarrón FC
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 63 away

creates per match

EDMF Churra
1.10
Mazarrón FC
1.21

allows per match

EDMF Churra
1.03
Mazarrón FC
1.33

finishing

EDMF Churra+0.00on par
Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EDMF Churra ↓

Mazarrón FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

EDMF Churra or draw
66%
EDMF Churra or Mazarrón FC
72%
Draw or Mazarrón FC
62%

Winning margin

EDMF Churra wins by 2+
17%
Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

EDMF Churra 1+ goals
70%
EDMF Churra 2+ goals
34%
EDMF Churra 3+ goals
12%
Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
67%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
31%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)
53%
Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EDMF Churra at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EDMF Churra attack 1.10 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + EDMF Churra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

EDMF Churra scores more
38%
level
28%
Mazarrón FC scores more
34%

EDMF Churra at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "EDMF Churra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: EDMF Churra 0–1 Mazarrón FC

Mazarrón FC beat EDMF Churra 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de EDMF Churra in Murcia.