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EDMF Churra vs Cartagena II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

EDMF Churra
EDMF Churra
CANC
00:00
Cartagena II
Cartagena II
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 35Campo de EDMF Churra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

EDMF Churra33%
×Draw29%
Cartagena II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EDMF Churra
1.08
Cartagena II
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

creates per match

EDMF Churra
1.10
Cartagena II
1.33

allows per match

EDMF Churra
1.03
Cartagena II
1.07

finishing

EDMF Churra+0.00on par
Cartagena II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EDMF Churra ↓

Cartagena II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

EDMF Churra or draw
62%
EDMF Churra or Cartagena II
71%
Draw or Cartagena II
67%

Winning margin

EDMF Churra wins by 2+
13%
Cartagena II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

EDMF Churra 1+ goals
66%
EDMF Churra 2+ goals
29%
EDMF Churra 3+ goals
10%
Cartagena II 1+ goals
69%
Cartagena II 2+ goals
33%
Cartagena II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)
47%
Cartagena II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EDMF Churra at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Cartagena II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EDMF Churra attack 1.10 + Cartagena II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cartagena II attack 1.33 + EDMF Churra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

EDMF Churra scores more
33%
level
29%
Cartagena II scores more
38%

Cartagena II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cartagena II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

EDMF Churra vs Cartagena II — Match Preview

EDMF Churra face Cartagena II on April 26, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

EDMF Churra host Cartagena II at Campo de EDMF Churra.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.