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Edirnespor vs Somaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Edirnespor
Edirnespor
AWD
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Somaspor
Somaspor
9/3/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st Round25 Kasım Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Edirnespor40%
×Draw27%
Somaspor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edirnespor
1.33
Somaspor
1.17

Edirnespor creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Edirnespor
1.33
Somaspor
1.33

allows per match

Edirnespor
1.00
Somaspor
1.33

finishing

Edirnespor+0.00on par
Somaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edirnespor ↓

Somaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Edirnespor or draw
67%
Edirnespor or Somaspor
73%
Draw or Somaspor
60%

Winning margin

Edirnespor wins by 2+
18%
Somaspor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Edirnespor 1+ goals
74%
Edirnespor 2+ goals
38%
Edirnespor 3+ goals
15%
Somaspor 1+ goals
69%
Somaspor 2+ goals
33%
Somaspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Edirnespor (draw refunded)
55%
Somaspor (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edirnespor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Somaspor away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edirnespor attack 1.33 + Somaspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Somaspor attack 1.33 + Edirnespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Edirnespor scores more
40%
level
27%
Somaspor scores more
33%

Edirnespor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Edirnespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Edirnespor face Somaspor (Türkiye Kupası)

Türkiye Kupası returns with Edirnespor hosting Somaspor. Match starts September 3, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Edirnespor host Somaspor at 25 Kasım Stadyumu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.