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Edirnespor vs Nilüfer Belediye — League #552 2026

Edirnespor
Edirnespor
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nilüfer Belediye
Nilüfer Belediye
3/14/2026League #552League #552 · Group 1 - 25Tunca Futbol Sahası

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Edirnespor30%
×Draw39%
Nilüfer Belediye30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edirnespor
0.67
Nilüfer Belediye
0.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Edirnespor
0.00
Nilüfer Belediye
1.00

allows per match

Edirnespor
0.33
Nilüfer Belediye
1.33

finishing

Edirnespor+0.00on par
Nilüfer Belediye+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Under
  • Under85
  • Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edirnespor ↓

Nilüfer Belediye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–026%
0–118%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
74%26%1.5
39%61%2.5
15%85%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Edirnespor or draw
70%
Edirnespor or Nilüfer Belediye
61%
Draw or Nilüfer Belediye
70%

Winning margin

Edirnespor wins by 2+
9%
Nilüfer Belediye wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Edirnespor 1+ goals
49%
Edirnespor 2+ goals
15%
Edirnespor 3+ goals
3%
Nilüfer Belediye 1+ goals
49%
Nilüfer Belediye 2+ goals
15%
Nilüfer Belediye 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Edirnespor (draw refunded)
50%
Nilüfer Belediye (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edirnespor at home — creates 0.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Nilüfer Belediye away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edirnespor attack 0.00 + Nilüfer Belediye defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Nilüfer Belediye attack 1.00 + Edirnespor defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 30%?"

Edirnespor scores more
30%
level
39%
Nilüfer Belediye scores more
30%

Edirnespor at 30% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 30% does not mean "Edirnespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Edirnespor vs Nilüfer Belediye

Edirnespor and Nilüfer Belediye drew 0-0 in League #552 on March 14, 2026.

The match was played at Tunca Futbol Sahası in Edirne.