Edirnespor 1–1 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Edirnespor

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Erzurumspor FK

9/24/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd Round25 Kasım Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Edirnespor68%

×Draw18%

Erzurumspor FK14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EdirnesporExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.00

Edirnespor

2.38

Erzurumspor FK

1.00

Edirnespor creates 138% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

3.43

creates per match

Edirnespor

1.33

Erzurumspor FK

1.00

allows per match

Edirnespor

1.00

Erzurumspor FK

3.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edirnespor+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edirnespor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Edirnespor or draw

86%

Edirnespor or Erzurumspor FK

82%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

32%

Winning margin

Edirnespor wins by 2+

45%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Edirnespor 1+ goals

91%

Edirnespor 2+ goals

68%

Edirnespor 3+ goals

42%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

63%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

26%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Edirnespor (draw refunded)

82%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edirnespor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edirnespor attack 1.33 + Erzurumspor FK defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.38

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.00 + Edirnespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Edirnespor scores more

68%

level

18%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

14%

Edirnespor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Edirnespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff