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Edirnespor vs Çankaya FK — League #552 2026

Edirnespor
Edirnespor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Çankaya FK
Çankaya FK
I. Kurt 62'
9/28/2025League #552League #552 · Group 1 - 425 Kasım Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Edirnespor24%
×Draw39%
Çankaya FK36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edirnespor
0.56
Çankaya FK
0.76

Çankaya FK creates 36% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

Edirnespor
0.00
Çankaya FK
1.18

allows per match

Edirnespor
0.33
Çankaya FK
1.12

finishing

Edirnespor+0.00on par
Çankaya FK+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Under
  • Under85
  • Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edirnespor ↓

Çankaya FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–027%
0–120%
0–28%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (27%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
73%27%1.5
38%62%2.5
15%85%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Edirnespor or draw
64%
Edirnespor or Çankaya FK
61%
Draw or Çankaya FK
76%

Winning margin

Edirnespor wins by 2+
6%
Çankaya FK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Edirnespor 1+ goals
43%
Edirnespor 2+ goals
11%
Edirnespor 3+ goals
2%
Çankaya FK 1+ goals
53%
Çankaya FK 2+ goals
18%
Çankaya FK 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Edirnespor (draw refunded)
40%
Çankaya FK (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
11%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edirnespor at home — creates 0.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Çankaya FK away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edirnespor attack 0.00 + Çankaya FK defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.56

Çankaya FK attack 1.18 + Edirnespor defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Edirnespor scores more
24%
level
39%
Çankaya FK scores more
36%

Çankaya FK at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Çankaya FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
I. Kurt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #552: Edirnespor 0–1 Çankaya FK

Çankaya FK beat Edirnespor 1-0 in League #552 on September 28, 2025.

Goals: I. Kurt (62').

The match was played at 25 Kasım Stadyumu in Edirne.