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Eding Sport vs Stade Renard — Elite One 2019

Eding Sport
Eding Sport
FT
0 – 0
Stade Renard
Stade Renard
2/23/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 24Centre Technique de la FECAFOOT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Eding Sport38%
×Draw31%
Stade Renard31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eding Sport
1.04
Stade Renard
0.91

Eding Sport creates 14% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 96 away

creates per match

Eding Sport
1.02
Stade Renard
0.88

allows per match

Eding Sport
0.94
Stade Renard
1.07

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par
Stade Renard+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

Stade Renard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw
69%
Eding Sport or Stade Renard
69%
Draw or Stade Renard
62%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+
15%
Stade Renard wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals
65%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
28%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
9%
Stade Renard 1+ goals
60%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
23%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)
55%
Stade Renard (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 54 matches

Stade Renard away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.02 + Stade Renard defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Stade Renard attack 0.88 + Eding Sport defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Eding Sport scores more
38%
level
31%
Stade Renard scores more
31%

Eding Sport at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Eding Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eding Sport 0 – 0 Stade Renard

Eding Sport and Stade Renard drew 0-0 in Elite One on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Centre Technique de la FECAFOOT in Yaoundé.