Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eding Sport vs New Star — Elite One 2019

Eding Sport
Eding Sport
FT
1 – 0
New Star
New Star
5/23/2018Elite OneElite One · Round 20Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo (Mbankomo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Eding Sport48%
×Draw29%
New Star23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eding Sport
1.28
New Star
0.78

Eding Sport creates 64% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 37 away

creates per match

Eding Sport
1.02
New Star
0.62

allows per match

Eding Sport
0.94
New Star
1.54

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par
New Star+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

New Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw
77%
Eding Sport or New Star
71%
Draw or New Star
52%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+
22%
New Star wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals
72%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
37%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
14%
New Star 1+ goals
54%
New Star 2+ goals
18%
New Star 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)
68%
New Star (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 54 matches

New Star away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.02 + New Star defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.28

New Star attack 0.62 + Eding Sport defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eding Sport scores more
48%
level
29%
New Star scores more
23%

Eding Sport at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eding Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eding Sport 1 – 0 New Star

Eding Sport beat New Star 1-0 in Elite One on May 23, 2018.

The match was played at Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo (Mbankomo).