Eding Sport 3–2 Leopard de Douala: Result & Stats

Eding Sport

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Leopard de Douala

1/3/2024

Elite Two · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Eding Sport52%

×Draw24%

Leopard de Douala24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eding SportExpected goals in this matchLeopard de Douala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.08

Eding Sport

1.71

Leopard de Douala

1.08

Eding Sport creates 58% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

1.60

creates per match

0.64

1.53

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Eding Sport

1.60

Leopard de Douala

0.64

allows per match

Eding Sport

1.53

Leopard de Douala

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par

Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

Leopard de Douala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw

76%

Eding Sport or Leopard de Douala

76%

Draw or Leopard de Douala

48%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+

28%

Leopard de Douala wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals

82%

Eding Sport 2+ goals

51%

Eding Sport 3+ goals

24%

Leopard de Douala 1+ goals

66%

Leopard de Douala 2+ goals

29%

Leopard de Douala 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)

68%

Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Leopard de Douala away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.60 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Leopard de Douala attack 0.64 + Eding Sport defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Eding Sport scores more

52%

level

24%

Leopard de Douala scores more

24%

Eding Sport at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Eding Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff