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Eding Sport vs Fovu Club — Elite One 2019

Eding Sport
Eding Sport
FT
1 – 1
Fovu Club
Fovu Club
6/8/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 25Stade Omnisport de Limbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Eding Sport38%
×Draw30%
Fovu Club32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eding Sport
1.12
Fovu Club
1.00

Eding Sport creates 12% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 67 away

creates per match

Eding Sport
1.02
Fovu Club
1.06

allows per match

Eding Sport
0.94
Fovu Club
1.22

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par
Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

Fovu Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw
68%
Eding Sport or Fovu Club
70%
Draw or Fovu Club
62%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+
16%
Fovu Club wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals
67%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
31%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
10%
Fovu Club 1+ goals
63%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
26%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)
54%
Fovu Club (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 54 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.02 + Fovu Club defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.12

Fovu Club attack 1.06 + Eding Sport defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Eding Sport scores more
38%
level
30%
Fovu Club scores more
32%

Eding Sport at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Eding Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Eding Sport 1–1 Fovu Club

Eding Sport and Fovu Club drew 1-1 in Elite One on June 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport de Limbe in Limbé.