Eding Sport 4–0 FC Rangers: Result & Stats

Eding Sport

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

FC Rangers

12/10/2023

Elite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Eding Sport51%

×Draw24%

FC Rangers25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eding SportExpected goals in this matchFC Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.16

Eding Sport

1.75

FC Rangers

1.16

Eding Sport creates 51% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 23 away

1.60

creates per match

0.78

1.53

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Eding Sport

1.60

FC Rangers

0.78

allows per match

Eding Sport

1.53

FC Rangers

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par

FC Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

FC Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw

75%

Eding Sport or FC Rangers

76%

Draw or FC Rangers

49%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+

28%

FC Rangers wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals

83%

Eding Sport 2+ goals

52%

Eding Sport 3+ goals

25%

FC Rangers 1+ goals

69%

FC Rangers 2+ goals

32%

FC Rangers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)

67%

FC Rangers (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

FC Rangers away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.60 + FC Rangers defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC Rangers attack 0.78 + Eding Sport defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eding Sport scores more

51%

level

24%

FC Rangers scores more

25%

Eding Sport at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eding Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff