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Eding Sport vs APEJES Academy — Elite Two 2020

Eding Sport
Eding Sport
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 1
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
5/6/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Eding Sport31%
×Draw24%
APEJES Academy45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eding Sport
1.35
APEJES Academy
1.67

APEJES Academy creates 24% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 20 away

creates per match

Eding Sport
1.60
APEJES Academy
1.80

allows per match

Eding Sport
1.53
APEJES Academy
1.10

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw
55%
Eding Sport or APEJES Academy
76%
Draw or APEJES Academy
69%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+
14%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals
74%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
39%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
15%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
81%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
50%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)
41%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.60 + APEJES Academy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

APEJES Academy attack 1.80 + Eding Sport defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eding Sport scores more
31%
level
24%
APEJES Academy scores more
45%

APEJES Academy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Eding Sport 0–7 APEJES Academy

APEJES Academy beat Eding Sport 7-0 in Elite Two on May 6, 2026.