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Edineţ vs Făleşti — Cupa 2020

Edineţ
Edineţ
FT
3 – 5
Făleşti
Făleşti
8/29/2023CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Edineţ22%
×Draw20%
Făleşti58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edineţ
1.40
Făleşti
2.33

Făleşti creates 66% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Edineţ
1.00
Făleşti
2.00

allows per match

Edineţ
2.67
Făleşti
1.80

finishing

Edineţ+0.00on par
Făleşti+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edineţ ↓

Făleşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Edineţ or draw
42%
Edineţ or Făleşti
80%
Draw or Făleşti
78%

Winning margin

Edineţ wins by 2+
10%
Făleşti wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Edineţ 1+ goals
75%
Edineţ 2+ goals
41%
Edineţ 3+ goals
17%
Făleşti 1+ goals
90%
Făleşti 2+ goals
67%
Făleşti 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Edineţ (draw refunded)
28%
Făleşti (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edineţ at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Făleşti away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edineţ attack 1.00 + Făleşti defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Făleşti attack 2.00 + Edineţ defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Edineţ scores more
22%
level
20%
Făleşti scores more
58%

Făleşti at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Făleşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Edineţ vs Făleşti

Făleşti beat Edineţ 5-3 in Cupa on August 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Edineţ.