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Edineţ vs CSF Bălți — Cupa 2020

Edineţ
Edineţ
FT
0 – 1
CSF Bălți
CSF Bălți
8/15/2020CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Edineţ29%
×Draw22%
CSF Bălți48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edineţ
1.43
CSF Bălți
1.90

CSF Bălți creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Edineţ
1.00
CSF Bălți
1.14

allows per match

Edineţ
2.67
CSF Bălți
1.86

finishing

Edineţ+0.00on par
CSF Bălți+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edineţ ↓

CSF Bălți →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Edineţ or draw
52%
Edineţ or CSF Bălți
78%
Draw or CSF Bălți
71%

Winning margin

Edineţ wins by 2+
13%
CSF Bălți wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Edineţ 1+ goals
76%
Edineţ 2+ goals
42%
Edineţ 3+ goals
17%
CSF Bălți 1+ goals
85%
CSF Bălți 2+ goals
56%
CSF Bălți 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Edineţ (draw refunded)
38%
CSF Bălți (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edineţ at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

CSF Bălți away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edineţ attack 1.00 + CSF Bălți defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

CSF Bălți attack 1.14 + Edineţ defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Edineţ scores more
29%
level
22%
CSF Bălți scores more
48%

CSF Bălți at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CSF Bălți will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Edineţ vs CSF Bălți

CSF Bălți beat Edineţ 1-0 in Cupa on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Edineţ.