Edinburgh City 1–0 Stirling University

Edinburgh City

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stirling University

I. Lawson 37'

10/25/2025

FA Cup · 2nd RoundMeadowbank Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Edinburgh City62%

×Draw20%

Stirling University18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edinburgh CityExpected goals in this matchStirling University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.08

Edinburgh City

2.17

Stirling University

1.08

Edinburgh City creates 101% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.33

creates per match

0.83

1.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Edinburgh City

2.33

Stirling University

0.83

allows per match

Edinburgh City

1.33

Stirling University

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Stirling University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

Stirling University →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw

82%

Edinburgh City or Stirling University

80%

Draw or Stirling University

38%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

39%

Stirling University wins by 2+

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

89%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

64%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

36%

Stirling University 1+ goals

66%

Stirling University 2+ goals

29%

Stirling University 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

77%

Stirling University (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Stirling University away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 2.33 + Stirling University defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Stirling University attack 0.83 + Edinburgh City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Edinburgh City scores more

62%

level

20%

Stirling University scores more

18%

Edinburgh City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Edinburgh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

I. Lawson↳ J. Stokes

Edinburgh

Stirling

Manager: Michael McIndoe

Manager: Chris Geddes