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Edinburgh City vs Stenhousemuir — League Two 2018

Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
8/13/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Ainslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Edinburgh City42%
×Draw25%
Stenhousemuir33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edinburgh City
1.48
Stenhousemuir
1.27

Edinburgh City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 78 away

creates per match

Edinburgh City
1.64
Stenhousemuir
1.28

allows per match

Edinburgh City
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.33

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par
Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

Stenhousemuir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw
67%
Edinburgh City or Stenhousemuir
75%
Draw or Stenhousemuir
58%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+
20%
Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals
77%
Edinburgh City 2+ goals
43%
Edinburgh City 3+ goals
19%
Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
72%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
36%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)
56%
Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.25 · 99 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 1.64 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stenhousemuir attack 1.28 + Edinburgh City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Edinburgh City scores more
42%
level
25%
Stenhousemuir scores more
33%

Edinburgh City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Edinburgh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Edinburgh City 1–0 Stenhousemuir

Edinburgh City beat Stenhousemuir 1-0 in League Two on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at Ainslie Park Stadium in Edinburgh.