Edinburgh City 0–1 Peterhead: Result & Stats

Edinburgh City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Peterhead

K. Shanks 22'

1/11/2025

League Two · Round 20Meadowbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Edinburgh City39%

×Draw25%

Peterhead36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edinburgh CityExpected goals in this matchPeterhead

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.38

Edinburgh City

1.44

Peterhead

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 53 away

1.65

creates per match

1.49

1.27

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Edinburgh City

1.65

Peterhead

1.49

allows per match

Edinburgh City

1.27

Peterhead

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Peterhead+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

Peterhead →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw

64%

Edinburgh City or Peterhead

75%

Draw or Peterhead

61%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

18%

Peterhead wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

76%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

42%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

18%

Peterhead 1+ goals

75%

Peterhead 2+ goals

40%

Peterhead 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

52%

Peterhead (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

Peterhead away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 1.65 + Peterhead defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Peterhead attack 1.49 + Edinburgh City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Edinburgh City scores more

39%

level

25%

Peterhead scores more

36%

Edinburgh City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Edinburgh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

K. Shanks↳ Jack Brown

30'

42'

45'

45'

45+2'

46'

O. Colloty← K. Shanks

59'

O. See← I. Lawson

59'

T. Daramola← J. Jarvis

68'

Malik Zaid← J. Stokes

70'

D. Forrest

72'

R. McAllister← D. Forrest

84'

R. Hamilton← Q. Mitchell

85'

P. Pawlett

86'

J. Grigor

90+3'

Scott Ross← M. Barry

Edinburgh

Peterhead

13

5

16

2

4

19

8

77

▼

Barry

21

▼

Forrest

12

A

Brown

10

⚽

▼

1

6

23

3

▼

2

4

8

10

▼

Jarvis

7

▼

Stokes

9

Young

11

▼

Lawson

Manager: M. McIndoe

59'▲O. See←▼I. Lawson

59'▲T. Daramola←▼J. Jarvis

68'▲Malik Zaid←▼J. Stokes

84'▲R. Hamilton←▼Q. Mitchell

Edinburgh City substitutes

33See25Daramola24Zaid20Hamilton17Rennie19Pitt12Beveridge15Scally

Manager: Jordon Brown

46'▲O. Colloty←▼K. Shanks

72'▲R. McAllister←▼D. Forrest

90+3'▲Scott Ross←▼M. Barry

Peterhead substitutes

25Colloty9McAllister15Ross1McKenzie3Armstrong18Brown22Ross