Edinburgh City 0–5 Falkirk: Result & Stats

Edinburgh City

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Falkirk

R. MacIver 88', 5'

C. Allan 35'

B. Parkinson 26', 20'

7/11/2026

League Cup · Group StageMeadowbank Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Edinburgh City16%

×Draw16%

Falkirk68%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edinburgh CityExpected goals in this matchFalkirk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

2.80

Edinburgh City

1.30

Falkirk

2.80

Falkirk creates 115% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

2.60

3.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Edinburgh City

1.00

Falkirk

2.60

allows per match

Edinburgh City

3.00

Falkirk

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Falkirk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

Falkirk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw

32%

Edinburgh City or Falkirk

84%

Draw or Falkirk

84%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

6%

Falkirk wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

73%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

37%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

14%

Falkirk 1+ goals

94%

Falkirk 2+ goals

76%

Falkirk 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

19%

Falkirk (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Falkirk away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 1.00 + Falkirk defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Falkirk attack 2.60 + Edinburgh City defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Edinburgh City scores more

16%

level

16%

Falkirk scores more

68%

Falkirk at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

R. MacIver↳ S. Tanser

12'

P. McGovern← A. Nesbitt

13'

G. Allen← J. Walker

20'

B. Parkinson↳ E. Laidlaw

26'

B. Parkinson↳ S. Tanser

35'

40'

59'

59'

59'

C. McKinley← L. Walker

61'

E. Ross← B. Parkinson

61'

A. Agyeman← E. Laidlaw

73'

K. Bennet← B. Spencer

77'

79'

88'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff