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Edinburgh City vs Falkirk — League Cup 2018

Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City
FT
3 – 0
Falkirk
Falkirk
7/21/2021League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 7Ainslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Edinburgh City23%
×Draw19%
Falkirk57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edinburgh City
1.47
Falkirk
2.38

Falkirk creates 62% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Edinburgh City
1.25
Falkirk
2.00

allows per match

Edinburgh City
2.75
Falkirk
1.69

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par
Falkirk+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

Falkirk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw
43%
Edinburgh City or Falkirk
81%
Draw or Falkirk
77%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+
10%
Falkirk wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals
77%
Edinburgh City 2+ goals
43%
Edinburgh City 3+ goals
18%
Falkirk 1+ goals
91%
Falkirk 2+ goals
68%
Falkirk 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)
29%
Falkirk (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

Falkirk away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 1.25 + Falkirk defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.47

Falkirk attack 2.00 + Edinburgh City defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Edinburgh City scores more
23%
level
19%
Falkirk scores more
57%

Falkirk at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Edinburgh City 3–0 Falkirk

Edinburgh City beat Falkirk 3-0 in League Cup on July 21, 2021.

The match was played at Ainslie Park Stadium in Edinburgh.