Edinburgh City 1–2 Dunfermline: Result & Stats

Edinburgh City

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dunfermline

C. Young 90+3' (pen)

M. Todd 72'

D. Mebude 5'

11/30/2024

FA Cup · 3rd RoundMeadowbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Edinburgh City62%

×Draw21%

Dunfermline17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edinburgh CityExpected goals in this matchDunfermline

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.97

Edinburgh City

2.06

Dunfermline

0.97

Edinburgh City creates 112% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.33

creates per match

0.60

1.33

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Edinburgh City

2.33

Dunfermline

0.60

allows per match

Edinburgh City

1.33

Dunfermline

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

Dunfermline →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw

83%

Edinburgh City or Dunfermline

79%

Draw or Dunfermline

38%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

38%

Dunfermline wins by 2+

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

87%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

61%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

34%

Dunfermline 1+ goals

62%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

25%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

79%

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 2.33 + Dunfermline defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.06

Dunfermline attack 0.60 + Edinburgh City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Edinburgh City scores more

62%

level

21%

Dunfermline scores more

17%

Edinburgh City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Edinburgh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

D. Mebude↳ J. Cooper

41'

J. Robertson

59'

J. Jarvis

59'

T. Sutherland← J. Cooper

61'

C. Hamilton← J. Chalmers

67'

67'

67'

72'

82'

R. Hamilton← L. McArthur

84'

D. Mebude

88'

S. Scally← I. Lawson

88'

C. Clay← D. Wotherspoon

90+3'

T. Oluwayemi

90+3'

C. YoungPenalty

Edinburgh

Dunfermline

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽A

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. McIndoe

67'▲O. See←▼Q. Mitchell

67'▲E. Lynch←▼J. Jarvis

67'▲D. Wells←▼S. Gormley

82'▲R. Hamilton←▼L. McArthur

88'▲S. Scally←▼I. Lawson

Edinburgh City substitutes

33See6Lynch21Wells20Hamilton15Scally19Pitt17Rennie12Beveridge

Manager: J. McPake

59'▲T. Sutherland←▼J. Cooper

61'▲C. Hamilton←▼J. Chalmers

88'▲C. Clay←▼D. Wotherspoon

Dunfermline substitutes

24Sutherland5Hamilton22Clay15Fisher1Mehmet23O'Halloran16Fogarty

FA Cup: Edinburgh City 1–2 Dunfermline

Dunfermline beat Edinburgh City 2-1 in FA Cup on November 30, 2024.

Goals: D. Mebude (5'), M. Todd (72'), C. Young (90+3' pen).

The match was played at Meadowbank Stadium in Edinburgh.

Edinburgh City vs Dunfermline — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Edinburgh City 1–2 Dunfermline