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Edinburgh City vs Caledonian Braves — FA Cup 2019

Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City
FT
3 – 1
Caledonian Braves
Caledonian Braves
12/26/2020FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundAinslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Edinburgh City54%
×Draw21%
Caledonian Braves24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edinburgh City
2.08
Caledonian Braves
1.33

Edinburgh City creates 56% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Edinburgh City
2.33
Caledonian Braves
1.33

allows per match

Edinburgh City
1.33
Caledonian Braves
1.83

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par
Caledonian Braves+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

Caledonian Braves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw
76%
Edinburgh City or Caledonian Braves
79%
Draw or Caledonian Braves
46%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+
32%
Caledonian Braves wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals
87%
Edinburgh City 2+ goals
61%
Edinburgh City 3+ goals
34%
Caledonian Braves 1+ goals
74%
Caledonian Braves 2+ goals
38%
Caledonian Braves 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)
69%
Caledonian Braves (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Caledonian Braves away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 2.33 + Caledonian Braves defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Caledonian Braves attack 1.33 + Edinburgh City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Edinburgh City scores more
54%
level
21%
Caledonian Braves scores more
24%

Edinburgh City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Edinburgh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Edinburgh City vs Caledonian Braves

Edinburgh City beat Caledonian Braves 3-1 in FA Cup on December 26, 2020.

The match was played at Ainslie Park Stadium in Edinburgh.