Edinburgh City 2–2 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Edinburgh City

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

C. Young 65'

J. Stokes 42'

N. Martyniuk 78'

K. Young 16'

8/17/2024

League Two · Round 3Meadowbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Edinburgh City49%

×Draw25%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edinburgh CityExpected goals in this matchBonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.10

Edinburgh City

1.61

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.10

Edinburgh City creates 46% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 56 away

1.65

creates per match

0.93

1.27

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Edinburgh City

1.65

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

0.93

allows per match

Edinburgh City

1.27

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw

74%

Edinburgh City or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

75%

Draw or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

51%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

26%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

80%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

48%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

22%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1+ goals

67%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2+ goals

30%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

65%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 1.65 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.61

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 0.93 + Edinburgh City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Edinburgh City scores more

49%

level

25%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic scores more

26%

Edinburgh City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Edinburgh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

35'

36'

38'

38'

42'

J. Stokes↳ J. Robertson

46'

49'

49'

63'

65'

69'

D. Watson← B. Scarborough

72'

C. Young

74'

J. Rennie← R. Hamilton

78'

N. Martyniuk↳ A. Arnott

79'

C. Connolly← L. Lorimer

82'

Q. Mitchell

82'

K. McKinstray← J. Stokes

83'

K. McKinstray

Edinburgh

Bonnyrigg

1

Ritchie

4

⚽

▼

Young

3

⚽

Martyniuk

18

Somervill

15

▼

Lorimer

8

Higginbot

10

A

6

19

11

24

▼

1

6

3

2

5

4

A

Robertson

20

▼

Hamilton

15

▼

Scally

7

⚽

▼

Stokes

9

⚽

Young

11

A

Lawson

Manager: M. McIndoe

63'▲S. Mair←▼S. Scally

74'▲J. Rennie←▼R. Hamilton

82'▲K. McKinstray←▼J. Stokes

Edinburgh City substitutes

18Mair17Rennie14McKinstray19Pitt12Beveridge

Manager: C. Elliot

46'▲A. Arnott←▼K. Young

69'▲D. Watson←▼B. Scarborough

79'▲C. Connolly←▼L. Lorimer

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic substitutes

16Arnott7Watson22Connolly9McGachie25Andrews21Innes2Elliot14Wardell

League Two: Edinburgh City 2–2 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Edinburgh City and Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic drew 2-2 in League Two on August 17, 2024.

Goals: K. Young (16'), J. Stokes (42'), C. Young (65'), N. Martyniuk (78').

The match was played at Meadowbank Stadium in Edinburgh.

Edinburgh City vs Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Two: Edinburgh City 2–2 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic