Edinburgh City 1–0 Berwick Rangers: Result & Stats

Edinburgh City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Berwick Rangers

B. Henderson 62' (pen)

3/5/2019

League Two · Round 25Ainslie Park Stadium (Edinburgh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Edinburgh City65%

×Draw19%

Berwick Rangers16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edinburgh CityExpected goals in this matchBerwick Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.02

Edinburgh City

2.24

Berwick Rangers

1.02

Edinburgh City creates 120% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 18 away

1.65

creates per match

0.78

1.27

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Edinburgh City

1.65

Berwick Rangers

0.78

allows per match

Edinburgh City

1.27

Berwick Rangers

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Berwick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

Berwick Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw

84%

Edinburgh City or Berwick Rangers

81%

Draw or Berwick Rangers

35%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

41%

Berwick Rangers wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

89%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

65%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

38%

Berwick Rangers 1+ goals

64%

Berwick Rangers 2+ goals

27%

Berwick Rangers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

80%

Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

Berwick Rangers away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 1.65 + Berwick Rangers defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.24

Berwick Rangers attack 0.78 + Edinburgh City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Edinburgh City scores more

65%

level

19%

Berwick Rangers scores more

16%

Edinburgh City at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Edinburgh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

B. HendersonPenalty

Edinburgh

Berwick

⚽

Manager: J. McDonaugh

Edinburgh City substitutes

SmithWatsonDiverThomsonMortonRodgerBreen

Manager: J. Harvey

Berwick Rangers substitutes

ForbesBluesHumeHealyBarrBrownGoodfellow

Match Recap: Edinburgh City vs Berwick Rangers

Edinburgh City beat Berwick Rangers 1-0 in League Two on March 5, 2019.

Goals: B. Henderson (62' pen).

The match was played at Ainslie Park Stadium (Edinburgh).

Edinburgh City vs Berwick Rangers — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Edinburgh City vs Berwick Rangers