Edinburgh City 3–0 Alloa Athletic: Result & Stats

Edinburgh City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Alloa Athletic

K. Offord 89'

R. Mahon 24', 11'

11/18/2023

League #183 · Round 14Meadowbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Edinburgh City39%

×Draw20%

Alloa Athletic41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edinburgh CityExpected goals in this matchAlloa Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

2.11

Edinburgh City

2.05

Alloa Athletic

2.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

1.89

2.33

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Edinburgh City

2.00

Alloa Athletic

1.89

allows per match

Edinburgh City

2.33

Alloa Athletic

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par

Alloa Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

Alloa Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw

59%

Edinburgh City or Alloa Athletic

80%

Draw or Alloa Athletic

61%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+

21%

Alloa Athletic wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals

87%

Edinburgh City 2+ goals

61%

Edinburgh City 3+ goals

33%

Alloa Athletic 1+ goals

88%

Alloa Athletic 2+ goals

62%

Alloa Athletic 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)

49%

Alloa Athletic (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Alloa Athletic away — creates 1.89, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 2.00 + Alloa Athletic defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

Alloa Athletic attack 1.89 + Edinburgh City defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Edinburgh City scores more

39%

level

20%

Alloa Athletic scores more

41%

Alloa Athletic at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alloa Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

24'

34'

50'

51'

57'

R. McLean← R. Shanley

58'

K. Ewen← S. Mercer

61'

Q. Coulson← S. Buchanan

69'

C. Sammon← T. Steven

75'

K. Offord← R. Mahon

80'

K. Jacobs← D. Handling

82'

I. Murray

89'

K. Offord↳ K. Jacobs

90+1'

K. Jacobs

Edinburgh

Alloa

1

2

6

3

23

12

4

8

19

▼

Buchanan

16

Roy

11

▼

1

17

4

5

A

▼

Mercer

29

Gormley

10

▼

Handling

16

A

Spence

23

Murray

8

Leitch

9

▼

Shanley

7

⚽2

▼

Mahon

Manager: M. McIndoe

57'▲R. McLean←▼R. Shanley

58'▲K. Ewen←▼S. Mercer

75'▲K. Offord←▼R. Mahon

80'▲K. Jacobs←▼D. Handling

Edinburgh City substitutes

14McLean18Ewen11Offord13Jacobs22Anukam21Quate

61'▲Q. Coulson←▼S. Buchanan

69'▲C. Sammon←▼T. Steven

Alloa Athletic substitutes

26Coulson18Sammon15McKay10Rodden14Virtanen7Cawley21Burt