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Edinburgh City vs Albion Rovers — League Two 2018

Edinburgh City
Edinburgh City
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Albion Rovers
Albion Rovers
11/5/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 1Ainslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Edinburgh City49%
×Draw24%
Albion Rovers27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edinburgh City
1.72
Albion Rovers
1.21

Edinburgh City creates 42% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 80 away

creates per match

Edinburgh City
1.64
Albion Rovers
1.18

allows per match

Edinburgh City
1.25
Albion Rovers
1.80

finishing

Edinburgh City+0.00on par
Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh City ↓

Albion Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Edinburgh City or draw
73%
Edinburgh City or Albion Rovers
76%
Draw or Albion Rovers
51%

Winning margin

Edinburgh City wins by 2+
27%
Albion Rovers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Edinburgh City 1+ goals
82%
Edinburgh City 2+ goals
51%
Edinburgh City 3+ goals
25%
Albion Rovers 1+ goals
70%
Albion Rovers 2+ goals
34%
Albion Rovers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh City (draw refunded)
65%
Albion Rovers (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh City at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.25 · 99 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.80 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh City attack 1.64 + Albion Rovers defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.72

Albion Rovers attack 1.18 + Edinburgh City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Edinburgh City scores more
49%
level
24%
Albion Rovers scores more
27%

Edinburgh City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Edinburgh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Edinburgh City 0–4 Albion Rovers

Albion Rovers beat Edinburgh City 4-0 in League Two on November 5, 2021.

The match was played at Ainslie Park Stadium in Edinburgh.