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Edgeworth Eagles vs Weston Bears — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Edgeworth Eagles
Edgeworth Eagles
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Weston Bears
Weston Bears
8/18/2025Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Elimination FinalsLake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Edgeworth Eagles46%
×Draw23%
Weston Bears30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edgeworth Eagles
1.75
Weston Bears
1.37

Edgeworth Eagles creates 28% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 80 away

creates per match

Edgeworth Eagles
2.11
Weston Bears
1.89

allows per match

Edgeworth Eagles
0.85
Weston Bears
1.39

finishing

Edgeworth Eagles+0.00on par
Weston Bears+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edgeworth Eagles ↓

Weston Bears →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Edgeworth Eagles or draw
70%
Edgeworth Eagles or Weston Bears
77%
Draw or Weston Bears
54%

Winning margin

Edgeworth Eagles wins by 2+
25%
Weston Bears wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Edgeworth Eagles 1+ goals
83%
Edgeworth Eagles 2+ goals
52%
Edgeworth Eagles 3+ goals
25%
Weston Bears 1+ goals
75%
Weston Bears 2+ goals
40%
Weston Bears 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Edgeworth Eagles (draw refunded)
61%
Weston Bears (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edgeworth Eagles at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.85 · 81 matches

Weston Bears away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edgeworth Eagles attack 2.11 + Weston Bears defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.75

Weston Bears attack 1.89 + Edgeworth Eagles defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Edgeworth Eagles scores more
46%
level
23%
Weston Bears scores more
30%

Edgeworth Eagles at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Edgeworth Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Edgeworth Eagles 1–2 Weston Bears

Weston Bears beat Edgeworth Eagles 2-1 in Northern NSW NPL on August 18, 2025.

The match was played at Lake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Field 1 in Newcastle.