Edgeworth Eagles 0–0 Weston Bears: Result & Stats

Edgeworth Eagles

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Weston Bears

3/6/2024

Northern NSW NPL · Round 1Jack McLaughlan Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Edgeworth Eagles46%

×Draw23%

Weston Bears30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edgeworth EaglesExpected goals in this matchWeston Bears

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.37

Edgeworth Eagles

1.75

Weston Bears

1.37

Edgeworth Eagles creates 28% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 80 away

2.11

creates per match

1.89

0.85

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Edgeworth Eagles

2.11

Weston Bears

1.89

allows per match

Edgeworth Eagles

0.85

Weston Bears

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edgeworth Eagles+0.00on par

Weston Bears+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edgeworth Eagles ↓

Weston Bears →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Edgeworth Eagles or draw

70%

Edgeworth Eagles or Weston Bears

77%

Draw or Weston Bears

54%

Winning margin

Edgeworth Eagles wins by 2+

25%

Weston Bears wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Edgeworth Eagles 1+ goals

83%

Edgeworth Eagles 2+ goals

52%

Edgeworth Eagles 3+ goals

25%

Weston Bears 1+ goals

75%

Weston Bears 2+ goals

40%

Weston Bears 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Edgeworth Eagles (draw refunded)

61%

Weston Bears (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edgeworth Eagles at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.85 · 81 matches

Weston Bears away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edgeworth Eagles attack 2.11 + Weston Bears defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.75

Weston Bears attack 1.89 + Edgeworth Eagles defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Edgeworth Eagles scores more

46%

level

23%

Weston Bears scores more

30%

Edgeworth Eagles at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Edgeworth Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff