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Edf Logrono W vs Real Sociedad W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Edf Logrono W
Edf Logrono W
Preview
15:00
Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
3/28/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 24
Big match
44%
Real Sociedad W
model favours
32%24%44%

Real Sociedad W have won 5 of the last 7 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Edf Logrono W32%
×Draw24%
Real Sociedad W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edf Logrono W
1.40
Real Sociedad W
1.69

Real Sociedad W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 119 away

creates per match

Edf Logrono W
1.34
Real Sociedad W
1.65

allows per match

Edf Logrono W
1.72
Real Sociedad W
1.46

finishing

Edf Logrono W+0.00on par
Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edf Logrono W ↓

Real Sociedad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Edf Logrono W or draw
56%
Edf Logrono W or Real Sociedad W
76%
Draw or Real Sociedad W
68%

Winning margin

Edf Logrono W wins by 2+
14%
Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Edf Logrono W 1+ goals
75%
Edf Logrono W 2+ goals
41%
Edf Logrono W 3+ goals
17%
Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
82%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
50%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)
42%
Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edf Logrono W at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.72 · 58 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edf Logrono W attack 1.34 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Edf Logrono W defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Edf Logrono W scores more
32%
level
24%
Real Sociedad W scores more
44%

Real Sociedad W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Edf Logrono W win just 7% against the top half (vs 36% against the bottom)
  • Edf Logrono W sit 14, Real Sociedad W 3 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LLWWD
W
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Edf Logrono W face Real Sociedad W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Edf Logrono W hosting Real Sociedad W. Match starts March 28, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.