Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Edf Logrono W vs Madrid CFF W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Edf Logrono W
Edf Logrono W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
3/17/2019Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 24Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas (Logroño)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Edf Logrono W42%
×Draw23%
Madrid CFF W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edf Logrono W
1.73
Madrid CFF W
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 119 away

creates per match

Edf Logrono W
1.34
Madrid CFF W
1.44

allows per match

Edf Logrono W
1.72
Madrid CFF W
2.13

finishing

Edf Logrono W+0.00on par
Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edf Logrono W ↓

Madrid CFF W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Edf Logrono W or draw
65%
Edf Logrono W or Madrid CFF W
77%
Draw or Madrid CFF W
58%

Winning margin

Edf Logrono W wins by 2+
22%
Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Edf Logrono W 1+ goals
82%
Edf Logrono W 2+ goals
52%
Edf Logrono W 3+ goals
25%
Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
79%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
47%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)
54%
Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edf Logrono W at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.72 · 58 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edf Logrono W attack 1.34 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.73

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + Edf Logrono W defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Edf Logrono W scores more
42%
level
23%
Madrid CFF W scores more
35%

Edf Logrono W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Edf Logrono W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Edf Logrono W vs Madrid CFF W

Edf Logrono W beat Madrid CFF W 2-1 in Primera División Femenina on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas (Logroño).