Edf Logrono W 1–2 Eibar W: Result & Stats

Edf Logrono W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Eibar W

I. Guehai 47'

Carla Morera 63'

Arola Aparicio 54'

6/6/2021

Primera División Femenina · Round 32Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Edf Logrono W44%

×Draw25%

Eibar W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edf Logrono WExpected goals in this matchEibar W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.25

Edf Logrono W

1.56

Eibar W

1.25

Edf Logrono W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 77 away

1.34

creates per match

0.78

1.72

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Edf Logrono W

1.34

Eibar W

0.78

allows per match

Edf Logrono W

1.72

Eibar W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edf Logrono W+0.00on par

Eibar W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edf Logrono W ↓

Eibar W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Edf Logrono W or draw

69%

Edf Logrono W or Eibar W

75%

Draw or Eibar W

56%

Winning margin

Edf Logrono W wins by 2+

22%

Eibar W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Edf Logrono W 1+ goals

79%

Edf Logrono W 2+ goals

46%

Edf Logrono W 3+ goals

21%

Eibar W 1+ goals

71%

Eibar W 2+ goals

36%

Eibar W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)

59%

Eibar W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edf Logrono W at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.72 · 58 matches

Eibar W away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.77 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edf Logrono W attack 1.34 + Eibar W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

Eibar W attack 0.78 + Edf Logrono W defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Edf Logrono W scores more

44%

level

25%

Eibar W scores more

31%

Edf Logrono W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Edf Logrono W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

14'

14'

38'

43'

Arola Aparicio← Sara Navarro

46'

Chini Pizarro← D. Caracas

47'

I. Guehai↳ Jade Boho

54'

Arola Aparicio↳ Ane Campos

63'

Carla Morera↳ H. Yonei

68'

Valeria Pascuet← I. Guehai

68'

R. Elloh← G. Asantewaa

70'

Mar Torrás← Ane Campos

71'

Maria Llompart← Sheila Elorza

77'

L. Lundin← LaiaBalleste

85'

Aida Esteve← Puyi

85'

Nerea Gantxegi← H. Yonei

Edf

Eibar

13

17

30

5

2

▼

Puyi

11

⚽

Morera

7

Altonaga

22

▼

Elorza

14

A

▼

Yonei

21

▼

Navarro

24

A

▼

1

2

4

22

▼

Caracas

28

▼

LaiaBalle

14

Velázquez

12

▼

Asantewaa

21

Marín

9

A

Boho

15

⚽

▼

Guehai

6

Fishley

Manager: José Moncayo

46'▲Chini Pizarro←▼D. Caracas

68'▲Valeria Pascuet←▼I. Guehai

68'▲R. Elloh←▼G. Asantewaa

77'▲L. Lundin←▼LaiaBalleste

Edf Logrono W substitutes

17Pizarro25Pascuet10Elloh18Lundin13Longa20Valderas7Luzuriaga5Juan29Muñoz

Manager: Iker Dorronsoro

43'▲Arola Aparicio←▼Sara Navarro

70'▲Mar Torrás←▼Ane Campos

71'▲Maria Llompart←▼Sheila Elorza

85'▲Aida Esteve←▼Puyi

85'▲Nerea Gantxegi←▼H. Yonei

Eibar W substitutes

19Aparicio16Torrás6Llompart8Esteve15Gantxegi10Álvarez9Kuki23Egaña3Gómez

Match Recap: Edf Logrono W vs Eibar W

Eibar W beat Edf Logrono W 2-1 in Primera División Femenina on June 6, 2021.

Goals: I. Guehai (47'), Arola Aparicio (54'), Carla Morera (63').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.

Edf Logrono W vs Eibar W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Edf Logrono W vs Eibar W