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Eddersheim vs Viktoria Griesheim — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Eddersheim
Eddersheim
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Viktoria Griesheim
Viktoria Griesheim
9/30/2022Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 12Sportplatz an der Staustufe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Eddersheim58%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Griesheim22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eddersheim
2.17
Viktoria Griesheim
1.27

Eddersheim creates 71% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 58 away

creates per match

Eddersheim
1.95
Viktoria Griesheim
1.19

allows per match

Eddersheim
1.34
Viktoria Griesheim
2.38

finishing

Eddersheim+0.00on par
Viktoria Griesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eddersheim ↓

Viktoria Griesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Eddersheim or draw
78%
Eddersheim or Viktoria Griesheim
79%
Draw or Viktoria Griesheim
42%

Winning margin

Eddersheim wins by 2+
35%
Viktoria Griesheim wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eddersheim 1+ goals
89%
Eddersheim 2+ goals
64%
Eddersheim 3+ goals
36%
Viktoria Griesheim 1+ goals
72%
Viktoria Griesheim 2+ goals
36%
Viktoria Griesheim 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Eddersheim (draw refunded)
72%
Viktoria Griesheim (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eddersheim at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.34 · 91 matches

Viktoria Griesheim away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eddersheim attack 1.95 + Viktoria Griesheim defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.17

Viktoria Griesheim attack 1.19 + Eddersheim defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Eddersheim scores more
58%
level
21%
Viktoria Griesheim scores more
22%

Eddersheim at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Eddersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eddersheim vs Viktoria Griesheim

Eddersheim and Viktoria Griesheim drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on September 30, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz an der Staustufe in Hattersheim.