Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eddersheim vs FC Gießen — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Eddersheim
Eddersheim
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Gießen
FC Gießen
3/12/2023Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 26Sportplatz an der Staustufe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Eddersheim40%
×Draw23%
FC Gießen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eddersheim
1.72
FC Gießen
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 53 away

creates per match

Eddersheim
1.95
FC Gießen
1.91

allows per match

Eddersheim
1.34
FC Gießen
1.49

finishing

Eddersheim+0.00on par
FC Gießen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eddersheim ↓

FC Gießen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Eddersheim or draw
63%
Eddersheim or FC Gießen
77%
Draw or FC Gießen
60%

Winning margin

Eddersheim wins by 2+
21%
FC Gießen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Eddersheim 1+ goals
82%
Eddersheim 2+ goals
51%
Eddersheim 3+ goals
25%
FC Gießen 1+ goals
80%
FC Gießen 2+ goals
48%
FC Gießen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Eddersheim (draw refunded)
52%
FC Gießen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eddersheim at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.34 · 91 matches

FC Gießen away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.49 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eddersheim attack 1.95 + FC Gießen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.72

FC Gießen attack 1.91 + Eddersheim defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eddersheim scores more
40%
level
23%
FC Gießen scores more
37%

Eddersheim at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eddersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eddersheim vs FC Gießen

FC Gießen beat Eddersheim 1-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz an der Staustufe in Hattersheim.