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Eddersheim vs Bayern Alzenau — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Eddersheim
Eddersheim
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bayern Alzenau
Bayern Alzenau
N. Kohlbacher 90+5'
C. Kara 54' (pen), 45'
P. Seikel 39'
8/27/2023Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 5Sportplatz an der Staustufe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Eddersheim42%
×Draw22%
Bayern Alzenau36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eddersheim
1.83
Bayern Alzenau
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 70 away

creates per match

Eddersheim
1.95
Bayern Alzenau
2.03

allows per match

Eddersheim
1.34
Bayern Alzenau
1.71

finishing

Eddersheim+0.00on par
Bayern Alzenau+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eddersheim ↓

Bayern Alzenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Eddersheim or draw
64%
Eddersheim or Bayern Alzenau
78%
Draw or Bayern Alzenau
58%

Winning margin

Eddersheim wins by 2+
22%
Bayern Alzenau wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Eddersheim 1+ goals
84%
Eddersheim 2+ goals
54%
Eddersheim 3+ goals
28%
Bayern Alzenau 1+ goals
82%
Bayern Alzenau 2+ goals
50%
Bayern Alzenau 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Eddersheim (draw refunded)
54%
Bayern Alzenau (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eddersheim at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.34 · 91 matches

Bayern Alzenau away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eddersheim attack 1.95 + Bayern Alzenau defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.83

Bayern Alzenau attack 2.03 + Eddersheim defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eddersheim scores more
42%
level
22%
Bayern Alzenau scores more
36%

Eddersheim at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Eddersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
P. Seikel
45'
C. Kara
54'
C. KaraPenalty
90+5'
N. Kohlbacher

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eddersheim vs Bayern Alzenau

Eddersheim beat Bayern Alzenau 3-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on August 27, 2023.

Goals: P. Seikel (39'), C. Kara (45', 54' pen), N. Kohlbacher (90+5').

The match was played at Sportplatz an der Staustufe in Hattersheim.